Economic Impact – Canada Is Not in A Recession

 

Canada enters the second quarter on firmer footing, shaking off a soft start to the year that stops short of a true recession. A sharp rebound in full-time employment and a surge in energy exports are setting the stage for stronger growth, even as the loonie weakens under shifting market forces. At the same time, renewed supply chain stress, driven by ongoing geopolitical disruptions, is keeping inflation risks alive and central banks on edge. Equity markets remain buoyant, but much of the good news is already priced in, raising questions about how much upside remains. Meanwhile, intensifying competition in AI, particularly from China, is challenging the sustainability of elevated expectations. Nancy Paquet and Stéfane Marion break down what it all means for investors and the road ahead.

Sincerely,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

 

 

 

 

Economic Impact – A Shock Like No Other

 

 Take a moment to hear from our Chief Economist, Stéphane Marion, and Executive Vice‑President Nancy Paquet as markets hit record highs amid persistent supply shocks, exploring the forces shaping Canada’s economy, from oil prices to inflation risks.

Sincerely,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

 

 

 

 

The Iran Conflict: Scenarios and Geopolitical Impact

Our geopolitical analyst Angelo Katsoras explores several possible scenarios related to the recent Iran conflict. Click to read the article and gain deeper insight.

Sincerely,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

 

 

 

 

Geopolitical Discussion January 2026: Campbell & Rob Hunter with Angelo Katsoras

Campbell and Rob met with National Bank of Canada’s geopolitical analyst, Angelo Katsoras, to discuss some of the topics front of mind at the beginning of 2026. We hope you will find the discussion of value while we navigate a dynamic geopolitical landscape together.

  • What are challenges in diversifying Canadian trade? What is your take on the upcoming CUSMA negotiations?
  • China-US tensions and the challenges of reshoring – challenges for Canada-US?
  • What do the US-Canadian tensions under the Trump administration mean for Carney’s ‘made in Canada’ /infrastructure strategy?
  • What are some of the geopolitical challenges you see in Europe, what should investors be looking for?
  • Can you please discuss more on the concept of zones of influence and how the recent events in Venezuela relate to this?
  • To what extent, I any, does the incursion into Venezuela relate to the Canadian Energy Industry– how are refineries in the gulf a consideration?
  • In a broad sense, how should we take geopolitical factors into account when investing?

Best,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

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