Category Archives: news

That may seem unusual given current geopolitics, some recent American banking issues, budgets and an apparent end to a long period of globalization.  I believe that the market is anticipating that interest rates have likely crested or are close to it.  Perhaps too, the U.S. Federal Reserve will be less hawkish as inflation falls. 

Here in Canada, inflation has been dropping for nine months to about 5.2%.  The forecast for mid-year is 4.8%. 

This isn’t the 2% that central bankers wanted but things are moving in the right direction.

Volatility day-to-day might best be explained by fickle unbalance between hope that interest rate hikes are near over, and the reality that they are starting to slow parts of the economy.

The yield curve remains inverted and it has been for months.  This is when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates.  Historically, this is a very strong technical indicator for recession as liquidity becomes tighter and we stop spending and/or borrowing as much as consumers. 

From an investment perspective, we have been busy planning for the worst while hoping for the best.    We have been selling long calls out to next year to maximize income in portfolios and have shifted new capital investment largely to income paying securities with larger weightings to Canadian banks, energy infrastructure and utilities, while maintaining exposure to technology.  I don’t think it is a ‘risk off’ market, but rather balanced to more caution for the time being.

It is the technology laden Nasdaq index which is leading the market year-to-date. 

While technology typically trades down with rising interest rates, it historically rallies with anticipated lower interest rates. 

I am not concerned about the recent banking issues in the U.S.  The American market has over 600 publicly listed financials and there have been problems in few.   Our banking sector of choice remains Canada with 6 regulated banks, who haven’t cut a dividend in 100 years and offer great capitalization.

Energy companies have been cleaning up their balance sheets, reducing debt, buying back their stock and raising their dividends.  While pricing has fallen more recently, particularly in natural gas which is looking oversold, we are at an end to the seasonal strength that comes with winter. 

This chart captures the rally in Canada (red), the SPX – U.S. broad market (blue) and the tech heavy Nasdaq (green).

I have prepared this commentary to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects my opinions alone and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial. 

Best regards,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor

Sources: NA Economics, Technical Speculator, Reuters, Stockcharts

National Bank Financial is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. The National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (NA: TSX). 

This information was prepared by Rob Hunter, an Investment Advisor with National Bank Financial. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. 

The opinions expressed are based on our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. National Bank Financial may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent, or underwriter for certain of the companies mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for its services. Rob Hunter, National Bank Financial and/or its officers, directors, representatives, and associates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and / or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. 

The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. 

Several of the securities mentioned in this article may not be followed by National Bank Financial’s

Research department. The investment advice given only applies to residents of the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec. National Bank Financial is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Market Update                                                                                                                 February -March 2023

                                                                        2022                                  YTD 2023 (at February 22/2023)

Canada’s TSX                                                <8.7%>                              +4.2%

U.S. S&P 500                                                 <19.4%>                            +4%

U.S. Nasdaq                                                  <33.1%>                            +9.9%

 Here in Canada, the central bank has given a pause and our Chief Economist believes that the Bank of Canada is indeed done.  He says inflation is declining at a 6% annualized rate. 

Meantime, employment is very strong and we are finishing up a reasonable quarter reported earnings.

We have been busy the last month dealing with a lengthy options maturity list.  With the pullback last year, most call options expired, and we have been busy rewriting calls to bring in more income.

TFSA/RSP

If you haven’t already, think about your TFSA and RSP contributions and remember that you can contribute cash or
securities. Think about growth securities that can grow tax-free and keep the dividend payors in your taxable accounts where in Canada, the dividend tax credit will apply.

LIRA

I have included a piece about LIRAs as an attachment to this Market Update.  If you have a LIRA, I hope you will find it an informative read.  

An important sidenote on provincially registered LIRAs, is that several jurisdictions allow for a one-time, 50% unlocking of a LIRA. 

By unlocking, I mean that you might be eligible to move half of your LIRA to an RSP where you would have complete control of the capital.  You could  invest it how you wish AND access as much of the capital as you wish – when you wish.

If a LIRA is unlocked, half of it can go to an RSP and half would have to go to a LIF and the LIRA would then no longer exist.  The LIF would start paying out a minimum or maximum amount as taxable income which is sometimes argued as a negative as it creates more taxable income.  However, unlocking part of your LIRA is about control and access to your LIRA capital versus additional taxable income when half of the LIRA goes to a LIF.  The payout scale on a LIF is similar in nature to that of your RIF. 

Please note that Federally registered locked-in pension plans have similar options for unlocking.  Feel free to contact my office with any questions about your LIRA options.

Reviews

My office is often attempting to review your portfolio three ways.  This might occur on the phone, by Teams (video) or in person, typically in our offices.  We have found some clients like the Teams video offering from the comfort of their homes, while others like to come into our offices.  If a member of my team or I contact you to review your portfolio, simply mention your preference and we will gladly accommodate your preference.

Office

Our office is now open for appointments – by appointment.  Call us to arrange any visits to our office.

I have prepared this commentary to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects my opinions alone and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial. 

Best regards,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor

Sources:  Stockcharts.com, Reuters, Bloomberg, Globe & Mail,

National Bank Financial is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. The National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (NA: TSX).

This information was prepared by Rob Hunter, a Senior Wealth Advisor with National Bank Financial. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete.

The opinions expressed are based on our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. National Bank Financial may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for certain of the companies mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for its services. Rob Hunter, National Bank Financial and/or its officers, directors, representatives, and associates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and / or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise.

The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. Several of the securities mentioned in this article may not be followed by National Bank Financial’s Research department.

The securities mentioned (inclusive of option strategies) in this article are not necessarily suitable to all types of investors.  Please consult your investment advisor to discuss investment risks. All prices and rates are subject to change without notice. Stocks typically fluctuate in value. Stock values can go to zero.

Selling calls against stock (Covered Writing): Shares may need to be sold at the strike price of the option at any time prior to expiration. If the calls are assigned, further opportunity for appreciation in the underlying security above the strike price is foregone.

Risk/Reward of the strategy = Strike price minus the purchase price of the underlying plus the premium received from the sale of the call. The maximum loss is the same as holding a long position less the premium received.

The investment advice given only applies to residents of the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec.

National Bank Financial is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Market Update                                                                                                                 January 2023

                                                                        2022

Canada’s TSX                                                <8.7%>                             

U.S. S&P 500                                                 <19.4%>

U.S. Nasdaq                                                  <33.1%>

Brief 2022 summary:

Despite the weakness, the TSX outperformed the American market by the widest margin since 2005 last year.  In your portfolio, the Canadian side served up relative strength and it paid good dividends.  As we opened up from Covid, inflation set in with supply chain issues.  Recall, China as a major supplier and it’s  ‘0-Covid’ policy resulting in a long lockdown.  The response from the central banks, when it came, was swift with very rapid increases in interest rates designed to slow demand and price inflation.  Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Real Estate all fell last year.  Within losing market indices the winning sector was Energy and the loser Technology – an inverse outcome from a year earlier. In fact, energy was responsible for the TSX relatively outperforming the U.S. market last year.  Canada is primarily a resource economy with some very good banks thrown in.

A turning point?

Remember that the stock market is forward looking and doesn’t necessarily reflect the current economy.  The volatility we have been experiencing is a tug of war for direction.  The S&P 500 in the U.S. tried to rally several times last year and each time it failed to sustain a break-out higher, and it was because of either another interest rate hike or chatter from central bankers suggesting more rate increases were to come. This provided that sense of a yoyo market.

The end of a bear market has always occurred as the market not only breaks out higher, but sustains the move on the back of better sentiment.  I believe that positive sentiment will be fueled by the belief that the central banks are finally finished raising interest rates.  Many pundits believe that will occur in the first or second quarter of 2023.

Mr. Powell, at the Fed wants it to be more difficult to spend to get price inflation down.  In the U.S. he appears to not mind a forced recession. 

Bear markets historically, have tended to last around 13-15 months.  This one is 12 months old. The average draw down is about 27% (achieved only by the Nasdaq last year).  On average markets have recovered to previous peaks from troughs within 24-27 months.  See those waves in the chart above – all failed attempts to break higher?  Stay invested.  History suggests this is a short-term event and that one of those waves in the chart above will eventually break out much higher – with a 100% historical track record.  The magnitude of these interest rate hikes is unprecedented for the short period of time in which they have occurred, suggesting we are nearing an end to them.

2023…

Diversification.  The dividend payors will remain defensive in your portfolio.  As we approach January call maturities, I will be seeking longer-term calls in order to enhance income and capture premium as a hedge against potentially weaker call premiums in the first half of the year. 

I would also consider bringing in strike prices (the price at which you would have to sell stock) in order to further enhance up front income. This can be particularly useful in the U.S. market where, for  example, technology stocks don’t tend to offer much dividend income.

Here is an example.

SGEN trades at $133 at the time of writing this letter, with a consensus target of $165.

The January ’24 (1 year) $165 call is trading around $11.00 representing 8.2% upfront in income.  If assigned at $165, the total return would be 35%

Now if we reduced the call option strike to $150 for the same period, the call is trading around $16, representing 12% upfront in income.  If assigned at $150, the total return would still be 28%.

In this strategy, the investor gets more income, more downside protection from the call but not as much potential upside, arguably a more defensive approach. 

While the U.S. market appears oversold and could be considered a value play, invest with a mindset of a few years – not a few weeks.

TFSA contribution this year is $6,500.  I will be sending more separately on TFSA, RSP and yes, tax preparation dates in future letters.

Client lunch workshop.

It has been a long time since we have been able to gather together.  I am hosting a casual workshop in our Boardroom on Wednesday Feb 8^th at 1pm.   I will provide some sandwiches and present some ideas on investment and taxes  but also provide you an opportunity to ask any questions.  This meeting is for clients that have pre-registered with Maureen, though you are welcome to bring a friend with you.  Register with Maureen at 250 953 8415. 

Hockey Season.  I have tickets available in our National Bank Financial box at Save On Memorial Arena for both February  26^th and March 4^th on a first come, first served basis.  Clients interested in attending a Victoria Royals game are welcome to bring family and/or friends.  For more information, please call Campbell at 250 953 8422 who returns January 9^th.

If you have any questions or would like to discuss any aspect of your portfolio or market, my team and I are a phone call away.  In addition to our online meetings, we are now hosting client meetings again in our Victoria office by appointment.   

I have prepared this commentary to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects my opinions alone and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial.

Best regards,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor

Sources:  Stockcharts.com, Reuters, Bloomberg, Globe & Mail,

National Bank Financial is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. The National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (NA: TSX).

This information was prepared by Rob Hunter, a Senior Wealth Advisor with National Bank Financial. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete.

The opinions expressed are based on our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. National Bank Financial may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for certain of the companies mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for its services. Rob Hunter, National Bank Financial and/or its officers, directors, representatives, and associates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and / or sales of these securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise.

The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. Several of the securities mentioned in this article may not be followed by National Bank Financial’s Research department.

The securities mentioned (inclusive of option strategies) in this article are not necessarily suitable to all types of investors.  Please consult your investment advisor to discuss investment risks. All prices and rates are subject to change without notice. Stocks typically fluctuate in value. Stock values can go to zero.

Selling calls against stock (Covered Writing): Shares may need to be sold at the strike price of the option at any time prior to expiration. If the calls are assigned, further opportunity for appreciation in the underlying security above the strike price is foregone.

Risk/Reward of the strategy = Strike price minus the purchase price of the underlying plus the premium received from the sale of the call. The maximum loss is the same as holding a long position less the premium received.

The investment advice given only applies to residents of the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec.

National Bank Financial is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Market Update                                                                          December 2022

North American Markets have continued to rally after bottoming mid-October.  As the market believes that central banks are finished aggressive interest rate hikes to counter inflation, I believe the market will respond positively.

The S&P 500 Index is up nearly 15 per cent from the October lows at Nov 23.  Fundamentally, the S&P 500 index is now trading at a discount to its 10-year historical average.  Technically, since 1950, the S&P500 has never produced a negative one-year return following a U.S. midterm election (BNN Nov 23/22).

I continue to favour financial and energy sectors here in Canada as these sectors tend to perform well in an inflationary environment.  Expect technology (U.S.) to be weak until a transition to a more dovish interest rate policy, sometime I believe in 2023.  As a result, I suggest pushing out new U.S. call option maturities to maximize premium income while you wait.   

The U.S. has had an inverted yield curve for 22 weeks which historically has served as a strong predictor of recession.  Fast rising interest rates serve to squeeze the availability of money in the economy. Put another way, the Federal Reserve may be willing to risk recession as a cost of combatting inflation.  If so, I don’t believe it would be long in nature as most businesses are starving for more labour and you may have noticed the Canadian Federal government recently announcing that it wants to bring in much more educated labour via immigration. 

While all North American markets have been moving up out of October lows, the strength remains in Canada which is now down <3.95%> YTD