Category Archives: news

2025 has provided another strong year in the market despite the pullback into April on tariff fears.  Performance in the U.S. has largely been a result of AI investment in the technology sector while gold (which historically trades inversely to the U.S. dollar), and banks drove the Canadian market performance. 

Tax loss selling.  The opportunity for tax loss selling is limited given market performance, but candidates include Telus in the communications sector and Nova Nordisk within the pharmaceutical this year.    

Artificial Intelligence AI.  Over the past few years, artificial intelligence has gone from a niche technology to a dominant force shaping markets, infrastructure, and investor sentiment. The scale of investment is staggering. Global spending on AI is expected to reach $375 billion by year-end, with projections of $500 billion in 2026. Tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google are racing to build massive data centers—some consuming as much electricity as entire cities—to power AI models.

What is driving the investment?

• AI-related stocks have fueled three-quarters of gains in the S&P 500 since late 2022.
• Nvidia, the leading chipmaker for AI, recently became the first company in history to hit a $5 trillion valuation.

OpenAI is rumored to be considering an IPO at a valuation of $1 trillion, which would rank among the largest in history.

The Other Side of the Story…

Despite the hype, there are signs of imbalance:

• Revenue vs. Investment Gap: OpenAI reportedly earned $4 billion last year but lost $5 billion. Microsoft and Meta have also reported multi-billion-dollar losses tied to AI investments.
• Economic Strain: AI spending now accounts for 92% of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, even as job openings decline and 22 states hover near recession.
• Bubble Concerns: Analysts warn that the pace of spending may outstrip returns, echoing past infrastructure booms like railroads and fiber optics.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

• Concentration Risk: Tech stocks dominate market gains, but this creates vulnerability if expectations falter.
• Financing Complexity: Data-center projects are increasingly funded through private equity and structured leases—arrangements that resemble past financial engineering practices.
• Long-Term Uncertainty: Generative AI tools are widely adopted, but their profitability remains unclear. A slowdown could ripple through capital markets.

Opportunities and Caution

• Energy & Infrastructure: Rising electricity demand may benefit utilities and energy sectors.
• Diversification: Balancing exposure to tech with defensive sectors can help mitigate volatility.
• Private Markets: Alternative investments tied to data-center financing may offer upside—but carry unique risks.

Bottom Line.

AI is reshaping the economy at an unprecedented pace.

Demand for GPUs, data centers and AI infrastructure far exceeds supply, and major tech players are urgently expanding capacity.

Whether this boom leads to a lasting transformation or eventual painful correction remains to be seen.   As always, our focus is on helping you navigate these dynamics with a disciplined, diversified approach managing your capital, which you can see in the sector weightings of your portfolio.

Last…

As we prepare for the year ahead, we wanted to begin with presenting Angelo Katsoras, our geo-political analyst for National Bank of Canada. Campbell and I will be interviewing Angelo in early January, which will be recorded and sent out to you.

In preparation for this we want to ensure that we give you the opportunity to ask the questions that are on your mind as we enter 2026. We will be sending out a separate email to you in the coming week which will include a link for clients to submit questions and comments.

Hopefully, this will prove an interesting presentation as we head toward 2026!

We have prepared this commentary to give you our thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects our opinions alone and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, we bring our best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of our informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial.

Happy Holidays!!

National Bank Financial

Sincerely,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

Sources: Stockcharts.com, The Atlantic, Reuters, Fidelity, The Globe & Mail.

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed consider a number of factors including our analysis and interpretation of these particulars, such as historical data, and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Unit values and returns will fluctuate, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Important information regarding a fund may be found in the prospectus. The investor should read it before investing.

The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF.

The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your Wealth Advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor’s profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.

We have prepared this report to the best of my judgment and professional experience to give you my thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed represent solely my informed opinions and may not reflect the views of NBF.

Selling calls against stock (Covered Writing): Shares may need to be sold at the strike price of the option at any time prior to expiration. If the calls are assigned, further opportunity for appreciation in the underlying security above the strike price is foregone.

Risk/Reward of the strategy = Strike price minus the purchase price of the underlying plus the premium received from the sale of the call. The maximum loss is the same as holding a long position less the premium received.

The investment advice given only applies to residents of the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec.

National Bank Financial is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Canada’s Opportunity in a Resilient Global Landscape

As we turn the page on September—a month that’s often considered a softer period for markets—we have been reflecting on what has been anything but a quiet time in the financial world. Despite familiar headwinds like the contentious government shutdown in the US, and ongoing global trade and geopolitical tensions, markets across the globe have shown remarkable resilience, pushing to new highs and defying expectations.

Here at home, Canada stands out even amongst this global strength. Our markets have performed exceptionally well throughout 2025, and we’re seeing record levels of interest from non-resident investors. This is certainly a positive sign, but it’s important not to let this influx of institutional and central bank flows distract us from what really makes an economy sustainable: long-term, foreign direct investment in critical sectors. These are areas where, frankly, we’ve lost significant ground over the years.

The outlook in Canada, as it currently stands, is not very positive – unless we make long overdue changes immediately. Unemployment is up across the country, productivity, GDP and GDI are down, while the standard of living and affordability is in decline. Despite the urgent need for sensible policy changes and significant deregulation of industry, we need meaningful action, and we needed it yesterday.

Despite the disappointing state of our country, Canada remains uniquely positioned—we have the resources, the talent, and the infrastructure the world wants and needs. Yet, despite these natural advantages, we’re facing some real challenges. Uncertainty around policy and a thicket of regulations have made it difficult for our industries to thrive, especially manufacturing, which is currently imploding in this country. The ongoing uncertainty around tariffs only adds to these pressures. Years ago, we made a collective decision to offshore much of our manufacturing capacity, partly to claim faster reductions in greenhouse gas emissions compared to our peers. Meanwhile, we now find ourselves exporting raw materials to countries that use dirtier sources of energy to process them, all while Canada claiming to maintain one of the cleanest energy infrastructures globally. To put things in perspective, Canada accounts for just 1.4% of global carbon emissions—a fact worth remembering as we map out our path forward.

Since 2015, business investment in Canada has been stagnant. I believe this won’t truly change without a meaningful reduction in unnecessary regulations, Ottawa currently overseas more than 330,000 federal regulations across multiple sectors. It’s not simply about slashing costs; it’s about being smart and strategic. We have untapped wealth beneath our feet, and we should be adding value here at home and across supply chains, both as responsible energy producers and trade partners. With electricity prices up 11% worldwide over the past year and Canada boasting abundant, clean power, there’s a real opportunity for us to lead, where frankly we have failed. The upcoming federal budget, expected this November, may well be the most significant in a generation when it comes to re-industrializing our economy and ensuring our continued economic sovereignty. Canada needs to reindustrialize and start making things, adding value once more.

This year Gold has been the winning story in Canada. The backdrop for this has been a weakening US dollar and the long standing, inverse relationship between the price of Gold to US dollar, as some central bankers opted to buy gold and other currencies over US dollar uncertainty. The US dollar still looks like it could pullback as much as another 20%, conversely, we think gold may have as much as 20% more potential upside. Gold often falls fast though, and it has not been seen at these valuations since the 80s.

Looking ahead, Canada has a rare window to re-establish itself as a principled and responsible global leader. If we’re smart and decisive, we can reindustrialize to create a better standard of living for future generations—working alongside both global and our American neighbours. We have what the world wants and needs. Now it’s time to show that we know what to do with it, and that we’re ready to act in our own best interests.

Globally, we’re seeing that markets and economies have become more adept at navigating policy shockwaves and shorter political cycles. Private sector resilience is on full display, with consumers driving strong spending, healthy profit margins, and increased productivity—even as headlines predict doom. Remember the three years we spent bracing for the most well anticipated recession in history, that never came? The lesson is clear: the private sector has learned to persevere, and so should we.

Of course, market corrections and shocks are part of the journey, and prices in certain sectors will be reevaluated at times, however we do not expect these corrections to be long-lasting. Instead, we’ll be watching for opportunities to invest in great businesses at reasonable prices—because, as the saying goes, you should never waste a good crisis.

Recently, we had dinner with a respected Wall Street strategist and former member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. When we asked him if Canadians should worry about what sometimes looks like chaos and infighting south of the border, he just smiled and said, “We’ve always been fighting—first the British, then ourselves, then everyone else, then the civil rights era… and then everyone again. Is it really all that different? Life and business go on.” It was a timely reminder that resilience isn’t new; it’s just part of the fabric of markets and societies in times of drastic and seemingly chaotic change.

As always, thank you for your trust and partnership. We’ll be watching developments closely and are here to help you navigate the opportunities and challenges ahead.

We have prepared this commentary to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects our opinions alone and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, we bring our best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of our informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial.

Sincerely,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

Sources: NBF Economics, Yardeni Research

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed consider a number of factors including our analysis and interpretation of these particulars, such as historical data, and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Unit values and returns will fluctuate, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Important information regarding a fund may be found in the prospectus. The investor should read it before investing.

The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF.

The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your Wealth Advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor’s profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.

We have prepared this report to the best of my judgment and professional experience to give you my thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed represent solely my informed opinions and may not reflect the views of NBF.

Selling calls against stock (Covered Writing): Shares may need to be sold at the strike price of the option at any time prior to expiration. If the calls are assigned, further opportunity for appreciation in the underlying security above the strike price is foregone.

Risk/Reward of the strategy = Strike price minus the purchase price of the underlying plus the premium received from the sale of the call. The maximum loss is the same as holding a long position less the premium received.

The investment advice given only applies to residents of the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec.

National Bank Financial is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Best,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

Canada’s stock market is outperforming year-to-date.  We have had a sector rotation to some extent in the market, where Canada is currently outperforming the U.S.  While most portfolios are weighted to Canada, the rotation primarily involves the materials sector, and specifically, precious metals like gold and silver producers.  Materials are up nearly 50% this year.  This can be seen in gold mining stocks. 

Gold trades inversely to the U.S. dollar and the spike over the last year or so, can be attributed in part, to weakness in the U.S. dollar.  It seems that a weaker U.S. dollar may be on the agenda for the Trump administration seeking to achieve an environment where U.S. products are more attractive and potentially as a means of dealing with U.S. debt.

Gold has limited industrial demand, and history suggests that a sharp volatile ride up has often been matched with the same volatility on the way down.  The precious metal is sometimes referred to as a fear commodity.

But that is not the only reason behind the TSX rise this year.  Technology is up 17% ytd and the Financials are up over 14% ytd.  The weak sector in the TSX is currently the Energy sector, as a result of current supply.  Energy demand continues to rise.

Here is a contrarian thought to keep in mind.  Despite the showing of the Canadian market year-to-date, Canada’s productivity and GDP remain rather low.   

Short-term volatility (last April) might be attributed to political or economic events near-term, but over the longer-term markets have risen due to economic fundamentals.  The most recent quarter’s earnings announcements provided evidence of that, and markets are at new highs. 

In the U.S. we wish to own companies least impacted by tariffs though, which to a large extent continues to have us favour innovative technology companies.

Some say we live in confusing times.  Come get untangled with a fresh perspective on Wednesday October 1^st when we will have our Chief Economist, Stefane Marion in Victoria for a presentation and Q&A.  This event is limited seating on a first come, first served basis. We will be sending out an official invitation tomorrow with specific details and where clients can register; if you need any assistance registering, be sure to give our office a call and we would be happy to assist.

I have prepared this commentary to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects my opinions alone and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial.

Best,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

Sources: National Bank Research, National Bank Economics, Stockcharts.com

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed consider a number of factors including our analysis and interpretation of these particulars, such as historical data, and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Unit values and returns will fluctuate, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Important information regarding a fund may be found in the prospectus. The investor should read it before investing.

The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF.

The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your Wealth Advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor’s profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.

Selling calls against stock (Covered Writing): Shares may need to be sold at the strike price of the option at any time prior to expiration. If the calls are assigned, further opportunity for appreciation in the underlying security above the strike price is foregone.

Risk/Reward of the strategy = Strike price minus the purchase price of the underlying plus the premium received from the sale of the call. The maximum loss is the same as holding a long position less the premium received.

The investment advice given only applies to residents of the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec.

National Bank Financial is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

During the past few months, we observed market lows in April following the announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. administration. These threats of tariffs have often been delayed, and this pattern remains consistent.  While they are talked up, they have not all been implemented and corporate earnings have been strong, lifting both Canadian and U.S. markets to new highs. 

Should these tariffs be implemented at the level previously indicated, it is likely we will see an eventual impact on corporate earnings and a potential slowdown in economic activity. If not, we may continue to experience current market conditions, which have proven resilient. It seems the market is gradually adapting to policy rhetoric and reacting less strongly than it did earlier this year in April.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar has been the weakest asset class year-to-date, while gold has been the strongest, benefitting from its inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar. There is ongoing speculation that the U.S. administration is seeking change at the Federal Reserve to encourage lower interest rates and in turn, an even weaker dollar as a means of making Americans buy American products which they may have little choice in doing as their dollar is weak to global currencies. 

Our approach remains focused on identifying and holding high-quality companies, navigating short-term noise with a long-term perspective. Return on invested capital (ROIC) remains a key metric in our portfolio decisions. To help offset currency risk, we are employing strategies such as selling options closer to the price at which stocks were purchased, thereby enhancing premiums as a partial hedge.

Despite currency fluctuations, we continue to see value in U.S. markets, given the concentration of leading global businesses. We remain vigilant and diversified, monitoring developments closely.

This commentary reflects my opinions alone and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial.

Best,

National Bank Financial

Rob Hunter                                 Campbell Hunter

Senior Wealth Advisor                 Wealth Advisor CIM®

Sources: 

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed consider a number of factors including our analysis and interpretation of these particulars, such as historical data, and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Unit values and returns will fluctuate, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Important information regarding a fund may be found in the prospectus. The investor should read it before investing.

The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF.

The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your Wealth Advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor’s profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.

I have prepared this report to the best of my judgment and professional experience to give you my thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed represent solely my informed opinions and may not reflect the views of NBF.

Selling calls against stock (Covered Writing): Shares may need to be sold at the strike price of the option at any time prior to expiration. If the calls are assigned, further opportunity for appreciation in the underlying security above the strike price is foregone.

Risk/Reward of the strategy = Strike price minus the purchase price of the underlying plus the premium received from the sale of the call. The maximum loss is the same as holding a long position less the premium received.

The investment advice given only applies to residents of the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Quebec.

National Bank Financial is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.